Temperature-based phenology model to predict the development, survival, and reproduction of the oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) - Reproduction and mortality of adults 30ᵒC

The oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) is probably the major pest for fruit and vegetable production systems nowadays in the world. It has invaded many countries, causing considerable impacts on fruit production systems and commercialization. The aim of this study was to investigate on the relationship between temperature and the development, survival and reproductive parameters of B. dorsalis on an artificial diet under laboratory conditions. The life history of B. dorsalis was studied at seven constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 33 and 35 ᵒC) with 70 ± 10 % relative humidity and a photoperiod of L12:D12. We used linear and non-linear models to describe the relationship between the development rate of both immature stages and the reproduction of adults. All applications and simulations were made using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Bactrocera dorsalis completed its development at temperatures ranging between 15 and 33 ᵒC with the mean developmental time of egg, larva, and pupa raging between 1.46 – 4.31 days, 7.14 – 25.67 days, and 7.18 – 31.50 respectively. The model predicted temperatures ranging between 20 and 30 ᵒC as favorable for the development, survival and reproduction of B. dorsalis. Life table parameters showed the highest gross reproductive rate (GRR), the net reproductive rate (Ro), the intrinsic rate of increase (rm), the finite rate of increase (λ) observed between 20 and 30 ᵒC while the generation time (T) and the doubling time (Dt) were low at this interval. In this study, the ILCYM software provided important results on the effect of future climate change on B. dorsalis life history parameters. Results obtained from this study will help for the development of an IPM package to predict the distribution, infestation and management of B. dorsalis in the context of ongoing climate change.